We spoke with Associate Professor Hossein Bonakdari, from the Department of Civil Engineering at the Faculty of Engineering, who is an expert in climate change and environmental engineering. He shared his insights on the upcoming climate anomalies, extreme weather changes in Canada, and the potential impacts on future seasons.
The conversation covered topics such as the record-breaking warmth, risks of droughts and wildfires, and the effects of transitioning from El Niño to La Niña – a climate pattern that results in drier, warmer conditions in the Southwestern US, but heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada, with periodic cold spells in various parts of North America – offering a detailed overview of recent weather patterns and forecasts for Canada.
Q: What were some notable climate anomalies that occurred during the winter 2024?
Professor Bonakdari: The winter of 2024 saw record-breaking warmth globally, with Canada experiencing its hottest winter on record and Europe having its warmest February and second-warmest winter. These anomalies were influenced by factors like the El Niño phenomenon, higher ocean temperatures, and the broader effects of climate change.
Canada witnessed dramatic weather shifts with periods of dry, warm conditions abruptly transitioning to intense cold spells. The season started with low snowfall, leading to an exceptionally warm January across many regions. Ottawa even experienced a remarkable 28-degree temperature swing in just 10 hours, setting a record for rapid temperature variation.
Q: What do your AI-supported tools tell you about weather for Canada in 2024?
Professor Bonakdari: The forecast indicates above-normal temperatures across much of Canada from March to May 2024, raising concerns about prolonged drought conditions that could exacerbate wildfire risks. In 2023, wildfires affected an unprecedented 18.5 million hectares, and with ongoing droughts influenced by El Niño, Canada faces a serious wildfire threat in 2024.
Forecasts suggest an 80% likelihood of shifting to ENSO-Neutral conditions, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña, by mid-2024 (April-to-June), followed by an almost 60% chance of transitioning to La Niña in June-to-August, which could further influence global climate patterns. The transition from El Niño to La Niña is expected to lead to cooler temperatures during the final months of 2024, especially across the Prairies, and a change in the jet stream that could lead to increased precipitation for western Canada, Ontario and Quebec.